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2020 Census Prediction: St. Louis City & County Will Each Lose Population

January 1, 2020 Featured, Politics/Policy, St. Louis County, STL Region Comments Off on 2020 Census Prediction: St. Louis City & County Will Each Lose Population

The decennial census is ramping up for an important task three months away:

The U.S. census counts each resident of the country, where they live on April 1, every ten years ending in zero. The Constitution mandates the enumeration to determine how to apportion the House of Representatives among the states. (U.S. Census)

The 2010 census officially showed population losses for St. Louis City (a smaller percent than prior decades), St. Louis County (first time losing population), and a small gain for Missouri (resulting in the loss of a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives).

I haven’t seen anything happen during the last ten years to convince me we won’t see a repeat for 2020. Yes, St. Louis’ central corridor will again see gains, but the net for the city will be a loss. The percentage of loss may drop again, but that’s small consolation.

I have no doubt St. Louis County will see another net loss, as the exodus from North County continues. Hopefully I’ll be proven wrong about the city & county, but I don’t think I’ll have to eat my words.

Here are the results of the recent non-scientific Sunday Poll:

Q: Will the City & County population change with the 2020 census?

  1. St. Louis City & County will both have population losses: 16 [64%]
  2. St. Louis County will have a population increase, St. Louis City a loss: 4 [16%]
  3. St. Louis City & County will both have population increases: 3 [12%]
  4. St. Louis City will have a population increase, St. Louis County a loss: 2 [8%]
  5. Unsure/no answer: 0 [0%]

Obviously the majority agree with me.

Missouri is expected to hold onto its congressional seats, but Illinois won’t be so fortunate. Illinois is one of ten states expected to lose a seat(s).

New census figures will be used to redraw everything from the city’s wards (dropping from 28 to 14) to House & Senate districts. New wards/districts will be in place for 2022 elections.

— Steve Patterson

 

 

Readers Split On Eliminating Personal Property Tax

December 18, 2019 Featured, Missouri, Politics/Policy, Taxes Comments Off on Readers Split On Eliminating Personal Property Tax
Missouri Capital, Jefferson City, MO, April 2011

A Missouri State Senator is going to try to eliminate personal property taxes by allowing citizens to vote on a constitutional amendment:

State Senator Bill Eigel says it’s time to end the payments. He sponsored the bill, SJR 44, which would ask voters to approve a constitutional amendment prohibiting counties and other political subdivisions from levying or collecting a tax on personal property. (KMOV)

In the recent Sunday Poll readers were split on the idea of eliminating the tax.

Q: Agree or disagree: Missouri should eliminate personal property taxes on vehicles.

  • Strongly agree: 8 [26.67%]
  • Agree: 5 [16.67%]
  • Somewhat agree: 1 [3.33%]
  • Neither agree or disagree: 1 [3.33%]
  • Somewhat disagree: 1 [3.33%]
  • Disagree: 6 [20%]
  • Strongly disagree: 6 [20%]
  • Unsure/No Answer: 2 [6.67%]

Sen. Eigel’s bill, SJR44, is the same as SJR5 introduced a year earlier. It never got out of committee.  Eigel represents part of St. Charles County.

I think most realize the folly of the state taking away a source of revenue for Missouri’s counties. Not all counties are equal, some likely depend much more than others on this revenue. Taking it away might mean a reduction in services provided, or an increase in some other tax.

I favor evaluating government services and revenue sources to ensure they’re fair, but I don’t favor constitutionally starving counties to the point they’ve got to substantially reduces services.

Hopefully this new bill also won’t get out of committee.

— Steve Patterson

 

Missouri Is A Solid Red State

December 11, 2019 Featured, Missouri, Politics/Policy Comments Off on Missouri Is A Solid Red State

When I moved to Missouri in 1990 it was a swing state, a bellwether:

The Missouri bellwether is a political phenomenon that notes that the state of Missouri voted for the winner in all but three U.S. Presidential elections from 1904 to 2016 (the exceptions are 1956, 2008 and 2012). While states like Ohio, Nevada, Florida and New Mexico have been arguably stronger indicators of political trends in recent years, Missouri was a consistent swing state throughout the 20th century. Prior to the 2008 elections, Lincoln County, Missouri was said to be the only bellwether county in a bellwether state. (Wikipedia)

Missouri would go red or blue throughout the 20th century. However, the last time Missouri went blue was in 1996. The country went blue in 2008 & 2012, but Missouri stayed red. The 2008 election was very close in Missouri, but widened in 2012 & 2016.

Vintage photo of the former offices of the St. Louis Board of Election Commissioners. From my collection

Twentieth century bellwether, 21st century red state.  Here’s the results from the recent non-scientific Sunday Poll:

Q: Agree or disagree: The right Democratic nominee could turn Missouri from Red to Blue in the 2020 General Election

  • Strongly agree: 4 [13.79%]
  • Agree: 2 [6.9%]
  • Somewhat agree: 2 [6.9%]
  • Neither agree or disagree: 2 [6.9%]
  • Somewhat disagree: 3 [10.34%]
  • Disagree: 6 [20.69%]
  • Strongly disagree: 9 [31.03%]
  • Unsure/No Answer: 1 [3.45%]

Most agree with me — regardless of the Democratic nominee a majority of Missouri voters vote for Trump. Illinois, meanwhile, remains a safe blue state.

— Steve Patterson

 

Sunday Poll: Will Missouri Go Red or Blue In The 2020 General Election?

December 8, 2019 Featured, Politics/Policy, Sunday Poll Comments Off on Sunday Poll: Will Missouri Go Red or Blue In The 2020 General Election?
Please vote below

Missouri’s Presidential Preference Primary is less than 100 days away, on Tuesday March 10, 2020. We don’t yet know who the Democrats will nominate at the end of their convention in July 2020, in Milwaukee, WI.

A number of states aren’t even holding a GOP primary, but Missouri’s GOP primary ballot will have at least one other name besides Trump’s. Still, it’s safe to assume Donald J. Trump will get the GOP nomination at their late August 2020 convention in Charlotte, NC.

Today’s poll question isn’t about the primaries, but about the general election on November 3, 2020. In 2016 Missouri’s 10 Electoral College votes were Red (Trump).

This poll will close at 8pm tonight. My thoughts and results on Wednesday morning.

— Steve Patterson

 

 

St. Louis Board of Aldermen: New Board Bills Week 25 of 2019-2020 Session

December 6, 2019 Board of Aldermen, Featured Comments Off on St. Louis Board of Aldermen: New Board Bills Week 25 of 2019-2020 Session

The St. Louis Board of Aldermen meet at 10am today, their 25th meeting of the 2019-2020 session. As previously noted, they have the first two meetings labeled as Week #1, so they list this as week/meeting 24.

Today’s agenda includes eight (8) new bills.

  • B.B.#174 – Muhammad – An ordinance establishing a Racial Equity Oversight Committee under the authority of the St. Louis Board of Aldermen to incorporate racial equity into all branches of government in the City of St. Louis.
  • B.B.#175 – Green/Vaccaro/Spencer/Ingrassia/Todd/Rice/
    Navarro/Narayan/Guenther – An ordinance submitting to the qualified voters of the City of St. Louis a proposal to amend the Charter of the City of St. Louis to require, that no public utility as herein may be sold, leased, conveyed, gifted, or otherwise disposed of either in whole or in part, or its management or business operations taken charge of or controlled either in whole or in part by another party pursuant to an agreement with the City unless such agreement has been approved by a majority of the Board of Aldermen by Resolution, and then by a majority of the qualified voters of the City of St. Louis voting thereon at a City-wide election; and containing a severability clause and emergency clause.
  • B.B.#176 – Davis – An Ordinance recommended by the Board of Estimate and Apportionment authorizing and directing the Director of Airports and the Comptroller of The City of St. Louis (the “City”) to enter into and execute on behalf of the City the Third Amendment to Fuel System Lease and Use Agreement AL- 442 to the St. Louis Lambert International Airport® Fuel System containing a severability clause and an emergency clause.
  • B.B.#177 – Clark-Hubbard – An ordinance approving a blighting study and Redevelopment Plan for the 5311-6123 and 5302- 6122 Dr. Martin Luther King Dr. Redevelopment Area.
  • B.B.#178 – Roddy – An ordinance determining that the Tax Increment Financing Plans listed in Exhibit “A” are making satisfactory progress under the proposed time schedule for completion of projects therein.
  • B.B.#179 – Davis – An Ordinance establishing a four-way stop site at the intersection of North Garrison Avenue and Locust Street regulating all traffic traveling northbound and southbound on North Garrison Avenue at Locust Street and regulating all traffic traveling eastbound and westbound on Locust Street at North Garrison Avenue, and containing an emergency clause.
  • B.B.#180 – Davis – An ordinance prohibiting the issuance of any 3:00 a.m. closing permits for any non-3:00 a.m. licensed premises within the boundaries of the Nineteenth Ward Liquor Control District, as established herein, for a period of three years from the effective date hereof; containing exceptions and allowing, during the moratorium period, for the renewal of or transfer of existing licenses, under certain circumstances; and containing an emergency clause.
  • B.B.#181 – Davis – An ordinance repealing Ordinance 70445 and in lieu thereof enacting a new ordinance prohibiting the issuance of any package or drink liquor licenses for any currently non-licensed premises within the boundaries of the Nineteenth Ward Liquor Control District, as established herein, for a period of three years from the effective date hereof; containing exceptions and allowing, during the moratorium period, for the transfer of existing licenses, under certain circumstances, the issuance of a drink license to non-profit corporations at currently non-licensed premises, the issuance of a drink license to persons operating a restaurant at a previously non-licensed premises and the issuance of liquor licenses in a specifically defined area and containing an emergency clause.

The meeting begins at 10am, past meetings and a live broadcast can be watched online here. See list of all board bills for the 2019-2020 session — the new bills listed above may not be online right away.

— Steve Patterson

 

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