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March 2nd Non-Partisan Ballot Is Set

January 12, 2021 Featured, Politics/Policy Comments Off on March 2nd Non-Partisan Ballot Is Set
Vintage photo of the former offices of the St. Louis Board of Election Commissioners at 208 South 12th Tucker) from February 1932 through December 1998. From my collection

Seven weeks from today, Tuesday March 2, 2021, St. Louis will hold its first non-partisan election for aldermen & mayor. Additionally, it’s the last election where half the aldermen means 14.

This year happens to be the odd-numbered wards up for election — to a special two-year term. A couple of even-numbered wards also have elections to fill an unexpired term. In two years the total number of aldermen will drop from 28 to 14, then 7 will get an initial 2-year term and 7 the usual 4-year terms. Once the census numbers are know  redistricting will begin.

Unlike past elections, the winners now must have more than 50% of the votes, so in a race with 3 or more candidates and nobody achieves the 50% threshold a runoff election will be held on April 6, 2021. Any runoff would be the top two candidates only. It’s unclear to me what would happen if two or more candidates tied for second place.

For decades partisan candidates paid a filing fee to the political party they were running for, usually Democrat. Independent candidates had to collect signatures to get on the general election ballot. Now every candidate is independent and must collect signatures to be included on the ballot. Some declared candidates are not on the ballot because their petitions didn’t contain enough signatures of registered voters.

Additionally this is the first time voters get to vote for more than one candidate in each race on their ballot.

Okay, let’s take a look at the races & candidates on the March 3rd ballot, here in reverse order:

WARD 27 — includes parts or all of: Walnut East & West, North Point, and Baden neighborhoods.

– Mary Ann Jackson is the only candidate. The incumbent is Pam Boyd.

WARD 25 — includes parts or all of: Carondelet, Dutchtown, and Mount Pleasant neighborhoods.

– Shane Cohn, the incumbent, is the only candidate. I ran for this seat 16 years ago, 4 years before Cohn won in 2009.

WARD 23 — includes parts or all of: Lindenwood Park, Ellendale, Clifton Heights, and North Hampton neighborhoods.

– Joseph A. Vaccaro, Jr., the incumbent, is the only candidate.

WARD 21 — includes parts or all of: Kingshighway East, Greater Ville, O’Fallon, Penrose, and College Hill neighborhoods. This ward has six (6) candidates and is the most likely to have a runoff election on April 6th.

– Laura Keys, current Democratic committeewoman
– Travon Brooks
– Melinda L. Long, a former alderwoman for this ward
– John Collin-Muhammad, current alderman
– Ticharwa Masimba
– Barbara Lane

WARD 19 — includes parts or all of: Shaw, Tiffany, The Gate District, Midtown, Vandeventer, and Covenant/Grand Center neighborhoods.

– Cleo Willis, Sr.
– Marlene E. Davis, incumbent

WARD 17 — includes parts or all of: Shaw, Botanical Heights, Tiffany, Midtown, Central West End, Forest Park Southeast, Kings Oak, and Cheltenham neighborhoods. Longtime alderman Joe Roddy announced last year he wouldn’t seek another term.

– Don De Vivo
– Tina Pihl
– Kaleena Menke
– Michelle Sherod

WARD 15 — includes parts or all of: Tower Grove South, Dutchtown, Gravois Park, Tower Grove East, and Benton Park West neighborhoods.

– Jennifer Florida, another former alderwoman running
– Alexander J. Gremp
– Megan Ellyia Green, incumbent

WARD 13 — includes parts or all of: Carondelet, Holly Hills, Boulevard Heights, Bevo Mill, Princeton Heights, Southampton, and Dutchtown neighborhoods.

– Anne Schweitzer
– Beth Murphy, incumbent

WARD 12 — includes part or all of: Boulevard Heights, Princeton Heights, St. Louis Hills. Larry Arnowitz resigned last year.

– Joe Rusch
– Bill Stephens
– Vicky Grass, incumbent from special election

WARD 11 — includes parts or all of: Carondelet, Patch, Holly Hills, Boulevard Heights, and Mount Pleasant neighborhoods.

– Sarah Wood Martin, incumbent

WARD 9 — includes parts or all of: Dutchtown, Mount Pleasant, Marine Villa, Gravois Park, Kosciusko, Soulard, Benton Park, Tower Grove East, and Benton Park West neighborhoods.

– Ken A. Ortmann, former alderman
– Dan Guenther, incumbent

WARD 7 — includes parts or all of: Kosciusko, Soulard, Benton Park, McKinley Heights, Fox Park, Compton Heights, Lafayete Park, Downtown, Downtown West, and Near North Riverfront neighborhoods.

– Shedrick (Nato Caliph) Kelley
– Jack Coatar, incumbent

WARD 5 — includes parts or all of: Downtown West, JeffVanderLou, St. Louis Place, Carr Square, Columbus Square, Old North St. Louis, Near North Riverfront, and Hyde Park neighborhoods.

– Tammika Hubbard, incumbent
– James Page

WARD 4 — includes parts or all of: Lewis Place, Kingshighway East, Greater Ville, The Ville, and Vandeventer neighborhoods. Sam Moore died in 2020, this election is for the remainder of the term.

– Edward McFowland
– Leroy Carter
– Dwinderlin (Dwin) Evans, incumbent from special election

WARD 3 — includes parts or all of: JeffVanderLou, St. Louis Place, Hyde Park, College Hill, Fairground, and O’Fallon neighborhoods.

– Brandon Bosley, incumbent
– Herdosia Kalambayi Bentum

WARD 1 — includes parts or all of: Wells/Goodfellow, Kingshighway East & West, Penrose, Mark Twain, and Walnut Park East neighborhoods.

– Loren Watt
– Sharon Tyus, incumbent
– Yolanda Brown

COMPTROLLER — citywide

– Longtime Comptroller Darlene Green is again unchallenged.

MAYOR — citywide. Mayor Lyda Krewson isn’t seeking a second term.

– Andrew Jones
– Tishaura O. Jones
– Cara Spencer
– Lewis Reed

So those who are unchallenged will be re-elected. The races with only two candidates will be decided on March 2nd. Races with 3 or more candidates might be decided on Election Day — if one gets at least 50% of the votes.

School board elections and any runoff races will be Tuesday April 6, 2021.

— Steve Patterson

 

Only 92 Days Until St. Louis’ First Non-Partisan Municipal Election

November 30, 2020 Featured, Politics/Policy Comments Off on Only 92 Days Until St. Louis’ First Non-Partisan Municipal Election

Another presidential election is behind us…well, most of us. Now it’s time to think about St. Louis’ March 2021 primary.  It began a week ago when filing opened.

Vintage photo of the former offices of the St. Louis Board of Election Commissioners. From my collection

Here’s a look at the important dates, from the St. Louis Board of Election Commissioners:

  • 11/23/20: Filing begins
  • 01/04/21: Filing ends
  • 01/20/21: Absentee voting begins
  • 02/03/21: Last day to register for this election
  • 02/17/21: Last day to request an absentee ballot
  • 03/01/21: Last day to vote absentee in person
  • 03/02/21: Election date

The March 2, 2021 primary will look very different from any previous primary in St. Louis history — every candidate is independent of a political party. Earlier this month voters approved a measure to change local elections to non-partisan.

The other major change is when you have three or more candidates. If no candidate gets at least 50% of the vote in the March 2nd primary then the top two candidates will face each other in a runoff in April.

No longer will the March primary be the de facto election, April should matter. Unless all races only have one or two candidates. And theoretically we could have races with 3 or more candidates but one gets at least 50% of the votes on March 2nd. Propositions and school board elections remain in April, first Tuesday.

It will eliminate printing primary ballots for up to five political parties (Democrat, Republican, Green, Constitution, Libertarian).  Fringe candidates often ran in a party other than democrat, this got them on the April general election ballot. No more of that thankfully.

We may still have fringe candidates on the March ballot, but they’ll likely not make a possible runoff in April.

What local offices are having elections in March 2021? The aldermen in the 14 odd-numbered wards, comptroller, and mayor. Two even-numbered wards (4, 12) have elections.

I believe the winners in the 14 aldermanic races will have 2-year terms, not the usual 4-year terms. This is because beginning in 2023 the number of wards will drop from 28 to 14. Voters approved this change a number of years ago.

As stated in the opening paragraph, filing began a week ago. Potential candidates still have more than a month to file, so if you’ve ever thought about running you’ve still got until January 4, 2021.

Fewer candidates have filed on the first day than I expected. Lewis Reed & Cara Spencer have both filed for mayor. Others like Tishaura Jones are expected to file. Mayor Lyda Krewson recently announced she wouldn’t seek a second term.

Only incumbent Darlene Green has filed for comptroller, not sure anyone else will file. Even candidates I like shouldn’t win simply because nobody ran against them.

As of the first day of filing no candidate has filed in four of the nine aldermanic seats, something I wasn’t expecting. The four are 1, 11, 17, and 27.

Unsurprisingly eight wards only have one candidate, so far. These are 3, 4, 7, 9, 15, 19, 23, and 25. Of these  six are incumbents: 4, 9, 15, 19, 23, and 25.

And my favorite— four wards have contested races: 5, 12, 13, and 21. The first three are the incumbent and a challenger. The 21st ward is the incumbent and three challengers! So far the 21st ward is the only race that might lead to an April runoff.

Sometime between the close of filing and the election I’ll look at the races and candidates. In the meantime I encourage those who are interested to run for public office. To see how to file for alderman click here.

— Steve Patterson

 

 

Pandemic St. Louis Style: Policy Fragmentation & Cognitive Dissonance

November 28, 2020 Featured, Metro East, Missouri, Politics/Policy, Retail, St. Charles County, St. Louis County, STL Region Comments Off on Pandemic St. Louis Style: Policy Fragmentation & Cognitive Dissonance

Early this week the KMOV News (CBS/4.1) had a story on the Jefferson County Health Department approving a mask mandate — and the upset group protesting outside. The very next story was the St. Louis Area Task Force saying hospital beds, including ICU, beds were filling up with COVID-19 patients.

People were protesting wearing masks in public while area hospitals are announcing they’re filling up quickly. There’s a term for this: cognitive dissonance.

The mental conflict that occurs when beliefs or assumptions are contradicted by new information. The unease or tension that the conflict arouses in people is relieved by one of several defensive maneuvers: they reject, explain away, or avoid the new information; persuade themselves that no conflict really exists; reconcile the differences; or resort to any other defensive means of preserving stability or order in their conceptions of the world and of themselves. The concept was developed in the 1950s by American psychologist Leon Festinger and became a major point of discussion and research. (Britannica)

Metro requires riders to wear masks on buses and trains. Metro doesn’t serve Jefferson or St. Charles counties.

How does this relate to masks?

Because of the intense polarization in our country, a great many Americans now see the life-and-death decisions of the coronavirus as political choices rather than medical ones. In the absence of a unifying narrative and competent national leadership, Americans have to choose whom to believe as they make decisions about how to live: the scientists and the public-health experts, whose advice will necessarily change as they learn more about the virus, treatment, and risks? Or President Donald Trump and his acolytes, who suggest that masks and social distancing are unnecessary or “optional”? (The Atlantic)

I don’t like wearing masks, but it’s the right thing to do around anyone other than my husband. The worst days are when I have treatment at Siteman Cancer Center, my mask is on for hours.

Then on Wednesday I saw a news story at Lambert airport on holiday. An airport spokesperson was explaining how everyone inside the terminal had to wear a mask — except she was inside the terminal and not wearing a mask! Two different travelers inside the terminal, both with masks, said they weren’t concerned because they were taking precautions — but their nostrils were visible!

My mom was a waitress for many years, so I feel for food service employees and restaurant owners. A recent story showed an owner upset at recent St. County restrictions prohibiting indoor dining. They argued it was unfair, if people could go into Target & shop they should be able to dine in. Uh, except that shoppers have to keep their masks on in retail stores — inside bars & restaurants the masks come off after being seated. Apples to oranges.

As I was writing this yesterday I saw a story on dine in supporters in St. Louis County. I wish as much effort was put into improving the carryout experience (ordering & packaging).

We’re back to limits on items because some placed their own important over that of the community.

A lot of this cognitive dissonance is due to the vastly different pandemic policies in different jurisdictions in the region. At least the Illinois side of the region has one uniform policy imposed by Governor Pritzker.  Here in Missourah Gov Parson has taken a hands-off approach, resulting in an infection rate double that of Illinois.   As a result each county has to go at it alone even though residents frequently cross over borders. Other than the hospital’s pandemic task force we have no regional leadership.

Our hospitals are full and their workers are exhausted. All because people aren’t willing to wear a mask in public or eat their restaurant dinner at home.

– Steve Patterson

 

Population Loss in Six North St. Louis Wards

November 16, 2020 Featured, North City, Politics/Policy Comments Off on Population Loss in Six North St. Louis Wards
The six wards on the top 1/3 of the city had lower registered voters in 2016 & 2020.

As I pointed out recently, north St. Louis continues experiencing population loss. In my post on the election results I wrote:

Despite the increase in registered voters, six contiguous north city wards (1,2,3,4,21,22,27) had decreases in registered voters. These same six also had decreases in 2016. When the 2020 census numbers are released next year we’re going to see population loses in the north side, but increases in the central corridor — the same pattern happened a decade ago. The overall increase in registered voters tells me the overall population loss slowed again or we might even see a very slight increase in population. A loss is more likely.

Overall the city had increased voter registration compared to 2016, so something is going on. Once we have the detailed census results we’ll get a clearer picture what is happening.

In the meantime I have some thoughts on this subject.

The 1940 census saw a decline from 1930 — those who could afford to move to the new suburbs  were doing so in large numbers.

Peak population in St. Louis in 1950 was around 856k. That population exceeded the physical capacity of our housing units — major overcrowding occurred in the oldest housing. Housing in the NW & SW was only 20-30 years old during the 1950 census, it likely wasn’t overcrowded. It was the 19th century housing that was overcrowded. The increased population masked an underlying problem — the white middle class was fleeing rapidly. Rural/poor whites & blacks looking for work after WWII made the census numbers look good but it was a huge shift in people.

In the seven decades since we’ve razed a significant percentage of the 19th century structures for highways, urban renewal projects, and due to abandonment. During this time the total population each census was less than the previous census. Initially it was large scale and widespread, but has slowed. Within a few decades all white neighborhoods became all black neighborhoods.

After the 2010 census we saw increased population in the central corridor (downtown west to city limits) but losses north and in parts of south St. Louis. I don’t think we’ll ever see widespread abandonment south of the central corridor. So much has been rehabbed — just too much invested to walk away. This is not to say that small areas on the southside won’t see losses, they very well could. Another thing we saw in the 2010 census was the black population dropped to just below 50% of the total, the white population remained unchanged as a percentage.

The six wards that make up the northern third of the city, on the other hand, are highly likely to see significant losses in the 2020 census results. These losses will most likely account for the majority of the overall population loss of the city.

What’s happening is the residents of these six wards are likely finding better housing elsewhere — either in the rest of the city or in St. Louis County. Population in the St. Louis region has long shifted around in search of better housing. What’s new is in these wards we are seeing a significant shift out with no new group shift in. When older homeowners die their kids don’t want the dated old family home.

To be sure there are some very nice pockets within these six wards with well-maintained houses, tree-lined streets, etc with relatively dense populations.  These islands are in contrast to the food/job deserts of the rest of the wards. Large non-residential sites include O’Fallon & Fairgrounds parks, Bellerive & Calvary cemeteries, and the contaminated government facility on Goodfellow occupy a lot of land, but a lot of the land is where buildings used to exist.

With these longtime wards emptying out it presents problems for redistricting next year. Ideally political boundaries are drawn to be compact, ideally square in shape. But you also want wards to reflect the demographic makeup of the population. After redistricting each ward represents roughly the same amount of people so the number of wards doesn’t matter as much when a third of the city is being vacated while the two-thirds is stable or increasing. It’s going to be challenging keeping the same number of majority black wards. I could see a black alderperson representing a diverse south city ward.  The next redistricting will reduce the number of wards from 28 to 14.

In a future post I’ll share my thoughts what St. Louis should do to counteract the increasingly empty third of the of the city.

— Steve Patterson

 

Post-Election Analysis: Missouri Getting Redder, St. Louis Turnout Declines

November 9, 2020 Featured, Missouri, Politics/Policy Comments Off on Post-Election Analysis: Missouri Getting Redder, St. Louis Turnout Declines

One of the big stories from the 2020 election was the huge turnout nationwide.

While more people have voted than at any other time in American history, percentage-wise, this number does not quite break records. Given that around 239.2 million Americans were eligible to vote in 2020, the projected number of voters brings us to a 66.8% turnout rate. This makes 2020 the year with the highest voter turnout since 1900, when Republican William McKinley won reelection with 73.7% turnout.

The highest voter turnout in history was in 1876, when 82.6% of eligible voters cast ballots in the race between Republican Rutherford Hayes and Democrat Samuel Tilden. Hayes eventually won the presidency in a close, contested election. (Town & Country Magazine)

Missouri voters exceeded the national average this election, by a few points.

More than 70% of all registered Missouri voters turned out to vote this election, Missouri Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft tweeted last night. That’s the highest turnout level in more than 20 years. The 1992 presidential election between Bill Clinton and George George H.W. Bush brought out 78% of registered voters. (St. Louis Public Radio)

The St. Louis Board of Election Commissioners is on the first floor at 300 N. Tucker (@ Olive)

I was curious how we did in the City of St. Louis. Turnout was less than four years ago, and 2016 was less than in 2012. I decided to delve into the data to seek an explanation for the decline in turnout.

Here are my findings:

  • Turnout in 2016 was 69.43%, but 65.05% in 2020.
  • Four wards (10, 13, 23, 24) had slight increases in the percentage of registered voters who voted, the other 24 wards all had declines.
  • Over 12,000 new registered voters compared to 2016, a 6.3% increase! Comparing 2020 to 2012 the increase in registered voters was 4.61%.
  • Despite the increase in registered voters, six contiguous north city wards (1,2,3,4,21,22,27) had decreases in registered voters. These same six also had decreases in 2016. When the 2020 census numbers are released next year we’re going to see population loses in the north side, but increases in the central corridor — the same pattern happened a decade ago. The overall increase in registered voters tells me the overall population loss slowed again or we might even see a very slight increase in population. A loss is more likely. More on this in a future post.
  • In all three (2012, 2016, 2020) some voters in every ward didn’t vote in the presidential race which is first on the ballot. In 2016 a few wards this approached 1% of voters, but in 2020 non exceeded half of one percent. It’s good that voters aren’t skipping down ballot races, though that likely exists too in fewer numbers.

Ok, on to Missouri.

I’ve voted in nine presidential elections, eight of those in Missouri. Democrat Bill Clinton won Missouri in 1992 by 10.15 points. Clinton won Missouri again in 1996, but only by 6.3 points. This was the last time Missouri went blue. Four of the next six elections have been redder than the last. The exceptions are 2008 & this year.

Here is the point spread, all favoring the GOP nominee.

  • 2000: 3.34 points
  • 2004: 7.2 points
  • 2008: 0.13 points (Obama nearly flipped Missouri blue)
  • 2012: 9.38 points
  • 2016: 18.51 points
  • 2020: 15.57 points

Biden this year lost Missouri by a smaller margin than Clinton, but still worse than Obama in 2012. As I said in December 2019: Missouri Is A Solid Red State. A poll in June had some thinking a blue wave would sweep across Missouri.

In total, the poll found that Biden claimed 48 percent of the likely voters in Missouri and Trump claimed 46 percent. “This result is consistent with national polls showing a double-digit Biden lead and state polls showing Biden ahead in other states Donald Trump won in 2016,” pollsters said in a release.

Biden’s campaign did not respond to Newsweek’s request for comment before publication.

“The political environment in Missouri has shifted slightly away from Republicans,” the pollsters concluded. Missouri is not the only battleground state in which recent polls indicate this is true. Earlier this month, election forecasters estimated Biden had an 86 percent advantage over Trump nationally, with his edge in some important swing stages ranging between 2 and 8 percent. Even so, the president has said that he holds a lead in all of the states likely to be critical in the general election’s outcome. (Newsweek)

I was highly skeptical when I saw this poll in late June because Missouri hasn’t been a battleground/swing state for years. It may be in play in the future, but it won’t happen in my lifetime.

— Steve Patterson

 

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