Farewell 2007 and Hello 2008

What a year 2007 was. Schools, Metro, Sherman George were all hot topics. While parts of the city and region got more urbanized and walkable other parts continued down the path towards mandating an automobile just to get around. I got rid of my car and moved downtown to a loft to make it easier not to own a car. I’ve been walking and bicycling more since doing so.

2008 promises to be an interesting year with highway 40 closing tomorrow, an effort to recall Mayor Slay, a push for more charter schools, an as yet undisclosed plan by Paul McKee for a large swath of North St. Louis and so much more.

Filing opens in January for those seeking to be Committeemen and Committeewomen in their wards. Each year the Democrats fill all the seats but the Republicans and Greens in the city have failed to fill all 56 positions. Anyone interested in becoming more active in local politics is included to run for these positions — including against Democrat incumbents. The election is in August.

Of course, in February we have the Missouri Presidential primary along with many other states. I’m not really pleased with any national candidate at this point although my best hope is on Obama. I’m not saying he has the best chance to win the election, just that I will feel more optimistic if he wins.

In the city we should expect to see work start on the Ballpark Village/Centene HQ, the Gateway Mall Sculpture Park and other high ticket big press items.
Weather you like living in a single family detached dwelling or in a multi-unit building in the heart of the CBD my wish is that we all will have increased options in 2008 and beyond. Mobility is an important part of America but increasingly that mobility is reduced to the private auto. So I hope that going forward we can all recognize the importance in providing a multitude of mobility choices to go about our daily lives. That, in my view, will be the true freedom America promises. Let’s make it happen in 2008.

Thank you for reading UrbanReviewSTL in 2007 and best wishes in the coming year.

– Steve

St. Louis Magazine Drops the Glitterati for Green in January Issue

Well, not really. The glitterati section is still there — you know people must be seen at all the social functions wearing just the right overpriced outfit. Still, the staff at St. Louis Magazine found time to put together an interesting green issue — their first.

The magazine is still on the same paper and most likely using the same inks as it has been, I see no indication of any recycled paper content or earth-friendly inks. An evaluation of the paper stock and printing methods they use would be a good idea! From “E: The Environmental Magazine” in 2001:

When it comes to promoting ecological destruction, toxic pollution and wastefulness on a large scale, it’s hard to beat the magazine industry. According to Coop America, nearly 95 percent of magazines print on paper with no recycled content, condemning 17 million trees to death by the saw each year.

But the trees cut to make paper are only the first environmental victims of magazine publishing. Turning those trees into pulp consumes enormous amounts of energy and water, and the bleaching process creates dioxin, a chemical the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency called “the most potent carcinogen ever tested on laboratory animals”

Environmentalist say this colossal problem could be greatly reduced simply by switching from virgin to recycled paper. Government research agrees. The EPA has reported that substituting one ton of 100 percent recycled paper for virgin paper saves 17 trees, 4,100 kilowatt-hours of electricity, 7,000 gallons of water and produces 60 pounds less air pollution.

The above is why I don’t get the number of magazines I used to. Even if we recycle them when done the trees are still gone and the pollutants are in our environment. I applaud St. Louis Magazine for doing a green issue, but their future issues need to actually be environmentally green. However, all the photos of the people featured in the green section were taken without any artificial flash and thus didn’t use any electricity — certainly worth noting

But, let’s move past magazine production to the content of the January 2008 issue.

Editor Stephen Schekenberg, a prior client of mine, helps introduce the topic for the month:

At present there is an incredible amount of environmental action taking place throughout St. Louis. In this first “green” issue of the magazine, we celebrate the stars of the region’s environmental scene: architects and designers, college kids and politicians, entrepreneurs and citizens. It’s hard to say what’s been more inspiring — learning what these St. Louisans are doing or hearing the attitude they have while doing it. Yes, the world’s environmental concerns are serious and significant. But their tone — and, we hope, ours — is neither gloom-and-doom nor finger-wagging. I’ve been inspired by their positivity, and their hope. I hope you will be, too.

One of the articles is 20 Cool Ways to Help Stop Global Warming. The number one thing? Ride a scooter, of course! The entire list is well worth reading. They didn’t include using a clothesline to hang laundry, I guess it wasn’t cool enough.

They also do a nice photo spread on the EcoUrban modular home in South City. Besides the nice photos, they point out all the various green features of the home which, to the naked eye, are not always apparent.

The main article is the “Green Giants” — those that are “doing the most to sustain our city — and our planet.” I’m not going to give away their entire list — you’ll have to get the magazine to see that. I did want to point out a few. Among the ‘citizens’ are Eric & Mary Brende as “models for slow living.” Eric Brende, some of you may recall, was the author of “Better OFF: Flipping the Switch on Technology” which I reviewed in July 2005. Eric pedals people around town on his rickshaw and Mary makes wonderful soaps she sells at the Soulard Farmers’ Market. I’ve been honored to speak to have been a guest in their home and I stop and talk to Mary when I am at the market or I’ll chat with Eric when I see him out and about (assuming he doesn’t have any customers).

In the ‘advocates’ section we have J.B. Lester, publisher of the popular Healthy Planet monthly in our region. Early on I wrote a monthly column for the Healthy Planet and one of my dearests friends, Lois Brady, was their food & travel editor for many years. Jeff McIntire-Strassburg from greenoptions.com and sustainablog.org is on the list as is the host of KDHX’s Earthworms show, Jean Ponzi. Also on this list is, well, me!

In the ‘entrepreneurs’ section we have Patrick Horine & Jenny Ryan of the Tower Grove Farmers’ Market and, along with Maddie Earnest and Jason McClelland, also of Local Harvest Grocery. Jenny Ryan is a recent graduate of the Urban Planning program I am in at SLU, her final ‘capstone’ for the degree being about local/sustainable food and the Tower Grove Market was used as a case study.

Also in this section is Terry Winkelmann, a co-owner of Home Eco — the cool store on Macklind that sells all the goods a green person needs. From a great selection of books, to hemp jeans, to solar panels and yes, worm bins — they’ve got it or can get it for you.

Numerous architects and builders are mentioned including Marc Lopata from Sage Homebuilders and Jay Swoboda and Nate Forst from EcoUrban.

In the ‘civic forces’ section we have Citizens for Modern Transit led by my friend (and UrbanReviewSTL reader) Thomas Shrout. Nothing better than debating light rail vs. streetcars with Mr. Shrout! Also mentioned is the Gateway Green Alliance for their activism including getting signatures to have the state audit the City of St. Louis. I’ll be on a panel hosted by the Greens on February 6th. The topic will be transportation – mark those calendars.

And finally we have the scholars and educators section. Someone who is both a scholar and educator as well as a personal friend, and the director of the Urban Planning and Real Estate Development program (UPRED) at St. Louis University, is Dr. Sarah Coffin. Dr. Coffin is one of the main reasons I entered the program at SLU. We don’t always agree on things but she is excellent at ensuring all students get a chance to express their views on the wide range of material presented in her classes. An expert in brownfield development, land trusts and a variety of other topics, I’m glad Dr. Coffin is here in St. Louis. And yes, I have her for one of my three courses next Spring but trust me when I say that sucking up doesn’t fly with Dr. Coffin — participation and well researched and presented ideas are required!

Another feature article, by Stefene Russell, is called Luddite’s Delight. This is how “one writer survived a month of treading lightly on the earth.” This is really a great read as Stefene decides to go green for a month and takes her husband on the journey with her. After starting off the article about the environmental credentials of her family, Stefene turns to herself:

And me? I recycle. That’s about it. In my family, I am the eco-blasphemer. The loser. The kid who might as well have become a dope dealer or an Amway distributor. My husband grew up in the suburbs, in a subdivision he describes as “so cookie-cutter, all the houses developed the same crack in the dining-room ceiling.” He spent his summer days watching MacGyver in an air-conditioned house, two-fisting Twinkies and Kool-Aid. He still loves hot dogs, video games, long meandering drives, new things crackling under plastic shrink-wrap, drive-through pizza, heated car seats, long showers, movie popcorn, swimming pools and gadgets of every sort.

One of my favorite lines from the piece:

Even my father, after going on a 45-minute screed about the “political boondoggle of ethanol,” recoils after I inform him I’m going to ride the bus. “That sounds pretty exotic,” he says. “Don’t you have any college students who could do that for you?”

This tale of Pradas, transit, MacGyver and toilet paper is an excellent read and thankfully an extended version is available online.
If you go out and buy the magazine be sure to offer it to someone else when you are done. If you’d rather not buy a copy, head to your nearest public library to read it in the periodicals section.

Fire Heavily Damages Downtown Restaurant

Earlier today an act of arson (per the Post-Dispatch) heavily damaged a downtown restaurant as well as adjacent living spaces. Thankfully, everyone was evacuated safely.

Just past 7:30am this morning a few fire trucks were still on the scene that started after 3am, according to news reports. Police had Washington Ave blocked in both directions. Copia was in the main floor of the lovely two story building in the center, above. The Vangard Lofts are to the left, a narrow building is to the right and finally The Meridian to the far right. Residents of all these buildings were evacuated. Unfortunately, The Vangard suffered some smoke & water damage.

From the back, above, we see the rear patio area. The front dining room seemed to have suffered mostly smoke & water damage, as the tables appear ready for dinner. However, the rear of the building was severely damaged.

The back of these buildings front onto St. Charles St., a narrow alley-like street. I’m not sure if parking is allowed on this section of the street. Still, a silver Mustang was parked at the end of Copia’s ramp at the back. The Fire Dept looks to have cut the railing apart to get access to the back entrance. Good thing they had that practice on Lou Hamilton’s diving board!

Above, St. Louis’ new fire chief Dennis Jenkerson changes shoes at the back of his car before leaving the site.

From the front, with the exception of the broken glass and debris, it doesn’t appear a 4-alarm fire just did the damage that it did. Again, the dining room was damaged by smoke and water, not fire.

Later crews were on the scene to board up the building and deal with damage at the Vangard Lofts as well.

Regular readers will note this is the same restaurant where I had my video-tapped confrontation with owner Eyad “ET” Tammas, over valets consuming too much public parking. Despite that, and the on-going valet problems, I would never wish arson upon anyone. Copia, like many other places, was an important part of the downtown scene. I wish them well in their rebuilding. The valet guys, and their tactics to take up more spaces than is fair, can stay gone as far as I am concerned unless they learn to play well with others.

Gas Price Predictions, My Timing Was Off A Couple of Years

In December 2005, following Katrina & Rita, I was so sure that gas prices would continue to elevate past the three dollar point by the end of 2006. Boy was I wrong! To make matters worse, in June 2006 I was smugly confident that gas would be three-fifty by the end of 2006. In June of 2006 I wrote the following:

Back on December 30th [2005] I predicted that by the end of 2006 “a gallon of regular gas will exceed $3.00, not due to a natural disaster or terrorism.” I think that prediction might turn out to be a major understatement. At the time regular gas in St. Louis was around $2.20/gallon.

Yesterday when I left my house for dinner regular at the two stations near me was $2.69/gallon. Just a couple hours later the price was $2.88/gallon (shameful I didn’t have my camera with me). Today I noticed the price has settled to $2.84/gallon. This is all for regular. Premium fuel, like my former Audi required, is now over $3.00/gallon. Places in metro East are seeing regular in the $2.94 – $2.99/gallon range.

So today I’m revising my estimate, I think we’ll see regular gas at $3.50/gallon before New Year’s Day 2007. And I don’t mean some spike brought on by a hurricane or such. Just normal everyday pricing.

In reality I was not wrong, just off on my timing a couple of years, give or take a few months. Looking closer at the per barrel price of crude oil and I can see where I made my mistake in timing.

In September 2005 oil was pushing up toward $60/barrel following Katrina+Rita and refineries were knocked out along the gulf coast. The market was in place for a short term gas spike. By December, when I made my premature prediction, the price of a gallon of oil had dropped to just pocket change below $50/barrel. I wasn’t totally off, we had started 2005 in the low 30s per barrel so ending up pushing $50/barrel was a big increase.

This month oil prices have been in the high 80s to mid 90s, a considerable distance from $50/barrel.

Yesterday’s LA Times reported (free registration required) that analysts are projecting a US average around $3.50/gallon in the first half of 2008, as demand increases:

“If anyone expects gas to be less than a new record, they are not thinking,” said Fadel Gheit, senior energy analyst for Oppenheimer & Co. “There is no question it will be much higher than last year.”

Americans will start 2008 paying about 65 cents more a gallon than they did in January 2007, according to the forecasts, and by April could see self-serve regular selling for $3.50 to $3.75 a gallon.

In California — where gas this year has fetched as much as 50 cents more than the national average — $4 a gallon “will no longer be considered a rogue number,” said Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst for the Oil Price Information Service. “It will list for that much in a lot of places.”

The Energy Department’s weekly survey of service stations Monday found the average pump price was $2.980 nationally and $3.261 in California, a couple of pennies lower than a week earlier — but much higher than the same period last year, when the number was $2.341 across the U.S. and $2.607 across the state.

Pump prices usually fall between Labor Day and the end of the year, in recent years dropping about 17% in California.  This year they did the reverse, gaining 17%.  

These will not be peaks and then drop back below $3/gallon. Demand continues to increase, both in the US and from other countries such as China and India.  World populations are increasing, as are vehicle registrations and total miles driven.  Not a formula for lowering prices.

All you folks with your V-8 SUVs and your 40-mile one-way commutes, get ready to pay lots more.  Sadly, the working poor who need a car to get to their jobs will also be paying more as well.  While some can handle the increase, others will not be able to do so.  And while many can handle short-term increases the long-term impact will be felt as consumers slow down their consuming to afford the gas for the Explorer.
Of course, this is an election year so that adds a whole new layer to the mix.  Will the Republicans in Washington find a way to artificially lower/stabilize prices between now and the November 2008 election?  Many factors such as the fallout from the subprime mess will really screw up the economic situation in 2008.
What will be interesting is how rising gas prices, combined with next weeks shutdown of highway 40, will impact the voters in St. Louis County with respect to a sales tax increase in August to help support ongoing operations at Metro as well as fund some future expansion.  Will the voters be see the folly of being so dependent upon cars that they decide to fund better transit or will they conclude they are already paying more money for gas and therefore can’t afford any more taxes?

Back to the LA Times:

Motorists found the New Year predictions infuriating.

“It’s absurd, ridiculous,” said Eric Mills, 40, a special-event coordinator for the entertainment industry, as he filled up his 1990 Honda Prelude with $3.399-a-gallon gasoline at a downtown Los Angeles Shell station.

“Every year I hear about fuel cells and other promising alternative fuel possibilities — and every year I’m still putting gasoline in my car.”

For all of you just waiting for that new fuel cell Taurus or Caprice, don’t hold your breath.  While these alternatives might pan out in a decade or so they are not going to help you this year.   Interestingly, motorists just keep motoring as if one day they will just instantly trade the gasoline powered car for some  fuel cell car and things will continue as before.  How simplistic.

Today’s Post-Dispatch has a story on people selling storage condos in St. Charles County.  For $40,000 you can get a storage unit for your extra car, boat or RV.  I guess when your 3-car garage is full that is what you do, buy a storage unit.  For these folks, the new reality that we are seeing unfold will come as a big shock.  When the market crashed in 1929 it was not the poor man jumping out of office windows.  Of course, today, the business man in Earth City doesn’t have operable windows and is likely at most on the 2nd floor.

So my predictions for 2008?  Nothing specific, I learned my lesson on that.  Gas prices will continue their upward trend, malls will continue to be yesterday’s news as people seek open air street-like shopping districts or actual shopping districts.  Projects in far St. Charles County that people think are temporarily on hold will be permanently on hold.  Developers and home builders will realize that 2008 is different than 1958 — the demographics are different, cheap gas is gone and people are seeking quality public space.  It will look rough while we are in it but in 2009 and beyond we will be thankful.

But I Ain’t No Liberal No More

You’d think conservative would be a good term. After all, we want to conserve the earth’s precious resources right? But it turns out the conservatives have the most liberal environmental policy and the liberals the most conservative. So much for the logic of labels.

The barbershop quartet group, The Foremen, give us there take on liberal and conservative in this funny video. For those with broken sarcasm meters, trust me when I say these guys are very much on the left. Enjoy:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfnZOZ_LQcU[/youtube]

You can get the lyrics from Foreman Roy Zimmerman.

Given that the presidential primary is only six weeks away, I think we’ll hear more and more about liberals and conservatives until then.