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A Look at Some of Tuesday’s Primary Results

From Missouri’s primary held Tuesday August 2, 2016:

U.S. Senator

  • (D) In this 4-way race the city & state both picked Jason Kander by a wide margin, with Cori Bush a distant 2nd though better in the city than statewide. Chief Wanna Dubie came in 3rd in the city and statewide.
  • (R) Incumbent Roy Blunt easily defeated three challengers from his own party.
  •  A total of 985,759 Missourians voted in this race, with 67% in the GOP (662,842),  32% in the Democratic (318,742), and the rest in Libertarian & Constitution primary.
  • In the city the total votes are as follows: Democrat (40,596), Republican (6,254), Libertarian (126), Constitution (10)
  • The 46,986 total votes from the city represents just 4,8% of the statewide vote.

Governor

  • (D) Current Attorney General Chris Koster, as expected, easily defeated three primary challengers.
  • (R) One of the most watched races. City & statewide voters picked Eric Greitens, but the order of the other three was different: City: 2) Hanaway 3) Kinder 4) Brunner; State: 2) Brunner 3) Kinder 4) Hanaway
  • This race received the most votes statewide: 1,011,386 — 67.6% in the GOP primary.

Lt Governor

  • (D) Russ Carnahan easily defeated two challengers.
  • (R) Mike Parson received 51.5% of the vote in the 3-way race, Bev Randles was a close 2nd with 43.4%
  • Unlike statewide voters, City voters in the republican primary picked Randles by a slim margin

Secretary of State

  • (D) Robin Smith easily defeated two challengers in both the City and statewide votes
  • (R) Similarly, John Ashcroft easily defeated two challengers in both the City and statewide votes

State Treasurer

  • (D) Statewide & City voters narrowly picked Pat Contreras over challenger Judy Baker.
  • (D) Statewide voters picked  Judy Baker over challenger Pat Contreras, though city voters picked the latter.

Attorney General

  • (D) Statewide & City voters picked Teresa Hensley over Jake Zimmerman
  • (R) Josh Hawley easily defeated Kurt Schaefer in a hotly contested race, statewide & City

State Representative — District 78

  • (D) Incumbent Penny Hubbard received 2,190 votes to Bruce Franks’ 2,106; 50.98% vs 49.02%. Franks hasn’t conceded the race to Hubbard.

State Representative — District 81

  • (D) Former Alderman Alfred Wessels defeated two others for the nomination.

St. Louis Circuit Attorney

  • (D) Kimberly Gardner received 48.58% of the vote in a 4-way race, 2nd place was Mary Carl with 23.6% — Carl was endorsed by outgoing Circuit Attorney Jennifer Joyce. Since the city is a one-party town, no other party has a candidate in the general election  — Gardner will become the city’s first African-American Circuit Attorney (prosecutor).

St. Louis Sheriff

  • (D) Vernon Betts won the 5-way race with 43.21% of the vote. Joseph Vaccaro was 2nd with 31,38%. Betts will face minimal opposition in the November general election, will become the new sheriff. However, he will not be the first African-American elected to serve as St. Louis’ sheriff. Benjamin Goins was elected sheriff in 1977 (Source).

Final thoughts

Since Missouri voters aren’t registered to a political party, as is the case in so many states, we can vote in whichever primary we decide. Thus, it’s hard to predict if the overwhelming number of voters in the statewide primary means statewide Democratic candidates don’t stand chance. Ballot issues like medical marijuana will also drive voters to the polls.

We can see that highly contested races at the top of the ballot draw more voters than nominally contested and low ballot races.

Though Missouri has voted Republican in presidential races since 2000, the Trump/Pence ticket might not continue that streak. Will the Green Party collect enough signatures to be on the ballot? Will it get enough votes to guarantee ballot access in 2020?

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Please Vote Today!

Vintage photo of the former offices of the St. Louis Board of Election Commissioners. From my collection
Vintage photo of the former offices of the St. Louis Board of Election Commissioners. From my collection

Today is primary election day in the Show-Me state, with lots of hotly contested races.

Prior posts:

If you haven’t done so already, please go vote.

— Steve Patterson

Missouri Republican Gubernatorial Candidates Debate Tonight

Missouri Capital, Jefferson City, MO, April 2011
Missouri Capital, Jefferson City, MO, April 2011

The four candidates for the Republican nomination for Missouri governor will debate for an hour tonight. They also debated last month — see Watch full video of the debate between Republican Missouri Governor’s candidates.

In the non-scientific Sunday Poll, readers thought Lt Gov Peter Kinder is most likely to win the GOP primary next month:

Q: Which Republican candidate for Missouri Governor do you THINK will win the August 2nd primary?

  1. Peter D. Kinder 16 [38.1%]
  2. TIE 8 19.05%
    1. Catherine Hanaway
    2. John Brunner
  3. TIE  5 [11.9%]
    1. Eric Greitens
    2. Unsure/no opinion

Of the four, Kinder is the only one to have ever won a statewide race. Brunner lost the 2012 primary for U.S. Senate to Todd “Legitimate Rape” Akin, Greitens has never run for public office before. In this poll nobody got a majority of votes, which may happen in the primary as well. An argument in favor of Ranked Choice Voting:

Ranked choice voting (RCV) makes democracy more fair and functional. It works in a variety of contexts. It is a simple change that can have a big impact.

With ranked choice voting, voters can rank as many candidates as they want in order of choice. Candidates do best when they attract a strong core of first-choice support while also reaching out for second and even third choices. When used as an “instant runoff” to elect a single candidate like a mayor or a governor, RCV helps elect a candidate that better reflects the support of a majority of voters. When used as a form of fair representation voting to elect more than one candidate like a city council, state legislature or even Congress, RCV helps to more fairly represent the full spectrum of voters. (FairVote.org)

For a look at all the candidates running, please see Ballotpedia’s Missouri gubernatorial election, 2016 page. Tonight’s debate will be broadcast in the St. Louis area on KMOV channel 4.1 from 7pm-8pm.

For a drinking game take a drink overtime one of them says any of the following ten words:

  1. Conservative
  2. Constitution
  3. Family
  4. Faith
  5. Liberals
  6. Obama
  7. Outsider
  8. Pro-Life
  9. Second Amendment
  10. Washington

Don’t play the drinking game if you’ll be driving afterwards.

 

— Steve Patterson

Sunday Poll: Which GOP Candidate for Missouri Governor Do You Think Will Win Their August Primary?

Please vote below
Please vote below

A big primary is coming up on Tuesday August 2nd. Among the many offices up for grabs is that of Missouri governor. There are four candidates on both the Democratic & Republican ballots, but it’s almost certain AG Koster will win the 4-way Democratic primary. Who he will face in the November 8th general election is anybody’s guess.

From the Washington Post back in April:

2. Missouri (D) OPEN: Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon is term-limited, and Democrats are turning to state Attorney General Chris Koster, a former Republican, to keep the mansion in Democratic hands. It’s going to be tough, given Missouri’s governor’s race is a toss-up in a state that, notably, has voted for the Republican candidate for president since 2000. But Koster’s chances are getting better with each passing day that Republicans muddle through a primary with four solid candidates, all of them viable: Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder, former state House speaker Catherine Hanaway, former Navy SEAL Eric Greitens, and businessman and former Senate candidate John Brunner. Each has their own advantage, whether it be money or résumé. As such, the August Republican primary risks damaging the eventual nominee just two months before the general election. In addition, all of them have to be careful to avoid any political third rails when it comes to controversial legislation to give businesses and individuals the right to refuse service to same-sex couples. (Some of Missouri’s biggest businesses are opposed to the law.) If this seat does go red, Republicans have good reason to think it will stay that way for a while. But Missouri voters are famously hard to pin down, and they have a few more months to watch Republicans battle it out. (Washington Post: The top 5 governors races in 2016)

If you’ve watched any television in the last month you’ve been bombarded by ad after ad. But if you’ve missed the ads, here are the most recent for each, in ballot order:

Not that I’m a fan of Koster, but I want the least electable GOP candidate to win the primary. But my want is different than who I think will actually win. So I’m putting the question to you:

The responses are shown in random order, the non-scientific poll will close at 8pm tonight. If I see evidence of a campaign to significantly alter the results I’ll close the poll early.

— Steve Patterson

 

Absentee Voting Begins Today for August 2nd Primary

Vintage photo of the former offices of the St. Louis Board of Election Commissioners. From my collection
Vintage photo of the former offices of the St. Louis Board of Election Commissioners. From my collection

Absentee voting for the Missouri’s August 2nd primary begins today. Since the St. Louis region has too many units of government to list all races/candidates, I’m focusing on the ballot voters in the City of St. Louis will face.

My list here differs slightly from the sample ballot:

  1. I’ve omitted races with only a single candidate
  2. Races listed here are in reverse order, though candidates are still in ballot order for their respective race.

If you read this in the order presented you’ll see smaller parties/races first.

At this point I’m endorsing in only three races, all on the Democratic Ballot:

All three are challenging Rodney or Penny Hubbard. I know all three personally and have donated a small amount to each campaign. We recently hosted a meet & greet for them.

Below are challenged races in the August 2nd partisan primary:

GREEN PARTY

FOR TREASURER

  • JEROME BAUER
  • DON DE VIVO

LIBERTARIAN PARTY

FOR U.S. SENATOR

  • JONATHAN DINE
  • HERSCHEL L. YOUNG

REPUBLICAN PARTY

FOR U.S. REP. DISTRICT 1

  • STEVEN G. BAILEY
  • PAUL BERRY III

FOR ATTORNEY GENERAL

  • JOSH HAWLEY
  • KURT SCHAEFER

FOR SECRETARY OF STATE

  • WILL KRAUS
  • JOHN (JAY) ASHCROFT
  • ROI CHINN

FOR LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR:

  • ARNIE C. – AC DIENOFF
  • BEV RANDLES
  • MIKE PARSON

FOR GOVERNOR

  • CATHERINE HANAWAY
  • ERIC GREITENS
  • JOHN BRUNNER
  • PETER D. KINDER

FOR U.S. SENATOR

  • ROY BLUNT
  • KRISTI NICHOLS
  • BERNIE MOWINSKI
  • RYAN D. LUETHY

DEMOCRATIC PARTY

FOR COMMITTEEWOMAN WARD 27

  • PAMELA BOYD
  • RACHEL JOHNS

FOR COMMITTEEMAN WARD 27

  • NATHAN BOYD
  • CHRIS CARTER
  • JIMMIE MATTHEWS

FOR COMMITTEEWOMAN WARD 26

  • TISHAURA O, JONES
  • KARLA MAY

FOR COMMITTEEMAN WARD 26

  • JOSEPH (JOE) PALM
  • DONALD L. GAGE II

FOR COMMITTEEWOMAN WARD 22

  • NORMA J. WALKER
  • ANNIE MILDRED COOPER

FOR COMMITTEEMAN WARD 21

  • ABDUL-KABA ABDULLAH
  • JAMES A. KEYS

FOR COMMITTEEWOMAN WARD 20

  • KEMATA K. MCCLINE
  • WENDY CAMPBELL

FOR COMMITTEEMAN WARD 20

  • GLENN BURLEIGH
  • DALE SWEET

FOR COMMITTEEMAN WARD 19

  • CLINT HARRIS
  • RICHARD R. WILSON

FOR COMMITTEEWOMAN WARD 14

  • MADALINE BUTHOD
  • LAURA OWENS

FOR COMMITTEEMAN WARD 11

  • ADAM KUSTRA
  • JACOB W. HUMMEL

FOR COMMITTEEWOMAN WARD 10

  • MICHELE KLUPE
  • LAURA B. HLADKY

FOR COMMITTEEMAN WARD 10

  • ROB STELZER
  • MAX ROBERT CASSILLY

FOR COMMITTEEWOMAN WARD 9

  • PAT ORTMANN
  • SARA JOHNSON

FOR COMMITTEEWOMAN WARD 8

  • ANNIE RICE
  • NORAH J. RYAN

FOR COMMITTEEMAN WARD 8

  • TONY ZEBROWSKI
  • PAUL F. FEHLER

FOR COMMITTEEMAN WARD 7

  • MARTY (JOE) MURRAY, JR
  • BRIAN ANTHONY WAHBY

FOR COMMITTEEWOMAN WARD 6

  • MARY ENTRUP
  • ALISON DREITH

FOR COMMITTEEMAN WARD 6

  • MATTHEW CARROLL-SCHMIDT
  • MICHAEK BUTLER

FOR COMMITTEEWOMAN WARD 5

FOR COMMITTEEMAN WARD 5

FOR COMMITTEEMAN WARD 4

  • LEROY CARTER
  • EDWARD MCFOWLAND

FOR COMMITTEEWOMAN WARD 3

  • LUCINDA FRAZIER
  • MARGUERITE DILLWORTH
  • SHEILA RENDON

FOR COMMITTEEMAN WARD 3

  • ANTHONY BELL
  • BRANDON BOSLEY

FOR COMMITTEEWOMAN WARD 2

  • JOYCE M. HALL
  • LISA MIDDLEBROOK

FOR COMMITTEEMAN WARD 2

  • LARRY MIDDLEBROOK
  • DAVID [DA] MOSLEY

FOR COMMITTEEWOMAN WARD 1

  • MANDA DAVIS
  • RAQUEL GANT
  • YOLANDA [GLASS] BROWN

FOR COMMITTEEMAN WARD 1

  • AZIM AZIZ
  • STERLING SAMUEL MILLER

FOR SHERIFF

  • JOSEPH [JOE] VACCARO
  • VERNON BETTS
  • JOHNNIE CHESTER, SR.
  • CHARLEY [BIG WILL] WILLIAMS
  • JIMMIE MATTHEWS

FOR CIRCUIT ATTORNEY

  • KIMBERLY M. GARDNER
  • PATRICK HAMMACHER
  • STEVE HARMON
  • MARY PAT CARL

STATE REP. DISTRICT 81

  • ALFRED J. (FRED) WESSELS
  • STEVE BUTZ
  • ADAM KUNSTRA

STATE REP. DISTRICT 80

  • BEN MURRAY
  • PETER MERIDETH

FOR STATE REP. DISTRICT 78

FOR STATE REP. DISTRICT 77

  • JESSE TODD
  • STEVE ROBERTS
  • JOHN COLLINS-MUHAMMAD
  • BRIAN ELSESSER

FOR STATE REP. DISTRICT 66

  • TOMMIE PIERSON, JR.
  • KHALIL ABDUL MUMIN
  • MARLENE TERRY

FOR STATE SENATOR DISTRICT 5

  • JAMILAH NASHEED
  • DYLAN HASSINGER

FOR U.S. REP. DISTRICT 1

  • (WILLIAM) BILL HASS
  • LACY CLAY
  • MARIA N. CHAPPELLE-NADAL

FOR ATTORNEY GENERAL:

  • JAKE ZIMMERMAN
  • TERESA HENSLEY

FOR STATE TREASURER

  • PAT CONTRERAS
  • JUDY BAKER

FOR SECRETARY OF STATE

  • BILL CLINTON YOUNG
  • ROBIN SMITH
  • MD RABBI ALAM

FOR LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR

  • WINSTON APPLE
  • RUSS CARNAHAN
  • TOMMIE PIERSON, SR.

FOR GOVERNOR

  • LEONARD JOSEPH STEINMAN II
  • CHRIS KOSTER
  • ERIC MORRISON
  • CHARLES B. WHEELER

FOR U.S. SENATOR

  • CHIEF WANA DUBIE
  • CORI BUSH
  • JASON KANDER
  • ROBERT MACK

Whether you vote at the polls or via absentee ballot, please research the races/candidates in your ward/district.

Not registered yet? You’ve got until July 6th.

— Steve Patterson

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