Challengers Unable To Overcome the Power of Incumbency

Tuesday’s partisan primary is over, next up the candidates from all the parties will face off in the April 2nd general election. Oh right, the Democratic primary is THE election. Next month a few of us will vote again, for the school board. If St  louis elected nonpartisan officials we could eliminate one of two low-turnout elections held one month apart.

Only three of the 15 seats on Tuesday were open seats, one was vacant and two incumbents decided not to seek an additional term.

18th Ward:

• Only 17% of registered voters participated in the 5-way race for an open seat.
• Winner Jesse Todd received 38.84% of the vote.
• Ald. Terry Kennedy decided not to run again.

24th Ward:

• 21.2% of those registered voted in the 5-way race.
• Attorney Bret Narayan won a majority of the votes with 55.54% selecting him.
• Former Ald. Tom Bauer came in 2nd with 16.6%. Whew, thankful he didn’t win. Two independent candidates have filed to run in April, a good plan in case Bauer had won the Democratic nomination.
• Ald. Scott Ogilvie didn’t run for re-election.

26th Ward:

• Twenty percent of registered voters cast ballots in this 3-way race.
• Shameem Hubbard, wife of Rodney Hubbard, won with only 36.73% of the votes.
• Ald. Frank Williamson resigned after accepting a job in the Treasurer’s office.

Now for the 12 seats where the incumbent won another term. Note that there were a few incumbents I wanted to see win, more I wanted to lose:

2nd Ward:

• Lisa Middlebrook was re-elected, turnout was 15.9%

4th Ward:

• Sam Moore won another term, voter turnout was 14.9%

6th Ward:

• Christine Ingrassia survived the 4-way race with 44.26%, Debra Carnahan came in 2nd place with 27.84%. Turnout was 25.5%.

8th Ward:

• Annie Rice was re-elected in the 2-way race with nearly seventky percent of the vote, turnout was relatively high: 28%.

10th Ward:

• Joe Vollmer easily defeated the challenger, with over sixty percent of the votes. Turnout was 21.8%.

12th Ward:

• Larry Arnowitz crushed his two challengers with 74.33%. Voter turnout was 21.9%.

14th Ward:

• Carol Howard will have another term with 52.01% to her challenger’s 47.99%. Turnout was 20.6%.

16th Ward:

• Thomas Oldenburg was unchallenged, turnout was 21.9%.

20th Ward:

• Cara Spencer defeated her challenger with 69.55%, voter turnout was 17.6%

22nd Ward:

• Jeffrey Boyd was re-elected with over sixty percent of the votes, turnout was 16.2%.

28th Ward:

• Heather Navarro wasn’t challenged, voter turnout was 19%.

Board of Aldermen President:

• Lewis Reed was re-elected to a fourth term in the 4-way race with only 35.63% of the vote, citywide turnout this election was 17.83%.
• State Sen. Jamilah Nasheed came in 2nd with 31.6%, Ald. Megan Green 3rd with 31.19%, and Jimmie Mathews a very distant 4th with 1.57%.
• Over 200 people who voted in the democratic primary didn’t vote in this race.
• Post-Dispatch: “Lewis Reed won only five of the city’s 28 wards in Tuesday’s Democratic primary race for president of the city’s Board of Aldermen, but those victories came in historically high voting areas, providing enough support for him to prevail in a close battle with two opponents.

  By comparison, state Sen. Jamilah Nasheed won 13 wards, dominating the north side. Alderman Megan Ellyia Green won 10, with a strong showing in the central part of the city including her Tower Grove South neighborhood.

  Despite Nasheed’s and Green’s faring well geographically, it was the turnout in the wards Reed won that made the difference.”

Only two races, with three or more candidates, did the winner get a plurality of the votes cast. Four races the winner didn’t get more than 50%. In many places these races would have a runoff election between the top two. Still, in other places they’d have an instant runoff, also known as Ranked-Choice Voting.

A ranked-choice voting system (RCV) is an electoral system in which voters rank candidates by preference on their ballots. If a candidate wins a majority of first-preference votes, he or she is declared the winner. If no candidate wins a majority of first-preference votes, the candidate with the fewest first-preference votes is eliminated. First-preference votes cast for the failed candidate are eliminated, lifting the second-preference choices indicated on those ballots. A new tally is conducted to determine whether any candidate has won a majority of the adjusted votes. The process is repeated until a candidate wins an outright majority. This system is sometimes referred to as an instant runoff voting system. (Ballotpedia)

This video explains RCV:

The ultimate winner might be the same, or not. It just depends on how voters ranked the candidates after their 1st choice. It eliminates the perception of the third candidate as a spoiler.

RCV would be especially helpful in highly crowded races, like the 2020 Democratic presidential primary.

— Steve Patterson

Candidates in March 5, 2019 Primary

The March 5th partisan primary is coming up in less than a month, so I wanted you to begin thinking about voting. Typically when we go to the polls the worker will ask which ballot you want (non-partisan, Green, Republican, Democratic, etc). Next month only those in the 6th Ward will be asked. Why?  One Green candidate is running for President of the Board of Aldermen, one Republican is running for 6th Ward Alderman (MICHAEL J. HEBRON, SR.).  Because the Green Party received less than 2% of the vote in the last gubernatorial election Jerome Bauer will automatically appear on the April 2nd general election ballot.

There are no ballot questions and only even-numbered wards are electing aldermen, so those of us in odd-numbered wards will only have to vote for the President of the Board of Aldermen.

The following in all caps is taken from the sample ballot.

DEMOCRATIC PARTY CANDIDATES

FOR PRESIDENT OF THE BOARD OF ALDERMEN: curious to see who wins this rave. Prediction: will NOT be Jimmie Matthews

• JAMILAH NASHEED
• MEGAN ELLYIA GREEN
• LEWIS REED
• JIMMIE MATTHEWS

FOR ALDERMAN WARD 2

• LISA MIDDLEBROOK
• THOMAS BRADLEY

FOR ALDERMAN WARD 4

• SAMUEL L. MOORE
• ROBERT DILLARD
• LEROY CARTER
• EDWARD MCFOWLAND

FOR ALDERMAN WARD 6: Incumbents generally don’t get 3 primary challengers, the only ward that will face a challenger in April

• CHRISTINE INGRASSIA
• CEDRIC REDMON
• DEBRA CARNAHAN
• HENRY GRAY

FOR ALDERMAN WARD 8

• ANNIE LEE RICE
• EMMETT L. COLEMAN

FOR ALDERMAN WARD 10

• JOSEPH [JOE] VOLLMER
• PAT HICKEY

FOR ALDERMAN WARD 12

• LARRY ARNOWITZ
• DERRICK NEUNER
• CASSANDRA [CASSIE] DECLUE

FOR ALDERMAN WARD 14

• CAROL J. HOWARD
• TONY PECINOVSKY

FOR ALDERMAN WARD 16: unchallenged incumbent

• THOMAS ROBERT OLDENBURG

FOR ALDERMAN WARD 18: Longtime 18th Ward Ald. Terry Kennedy isn’t running for reelection, so you’ve got a 5-way race to fill the seat. Kennedy was first sworn into office on April 18, 1989.

• JESSE TODD
• JEFFERY HILL, JR.
• DARRYL GRAY
• JUDITH ARNOLD
• ELMER OTEY

FOR ALDERMAN WARD 20

• CARA SPENCER
• SATIA [SUNNI] HUTTON

FOR ALDERMAN WARD 22

• TONYA FINLEY-MCCAW
• JEFFREY L. BOYD

FOR ALDERMAN WARD 24: two-term Ald. Scott Ogilvie isn’t running for a 3rd term, so five candidates are running. Ogilvie easily defeated Tom Bauer in the 2011 general election.

• LORIE CAVIN
• BRET NARAYAN
• TERI POWERS
• DANNY SAMPLE
• TOM BAUER

FOR ALDERMAN WARD 26: Longtime Ald. Frank Williamson resigned to take a job in the Treasurer’s office, he has been in office since April 15, 2003. Candidate Jake Banton is a licensed architect!

• LEATA C. PRICE-LAND
• SHAMEEM CLARK HUBBARD
• JAKE BANTON

FOR ALDERMAN WARD 28

• HEATHER B. NAVARRO: unchallenged incumbent

Please be sure to vote!

— Steve Patterson

Absentee Voting Begins Today for August 2nd Primary

Absentee voting for the Missouri’s August 2nd primary begins today. Since the St. Louis region has too many units of government to list all races/candidates, I’m focusing on the ballot voters in the City of St. Louis will face.

My list here differs slightly from the sample ballot:

1. I’ve omitted races with only a single candidate
2. Races listed here are in reverse order, though candidates are still in ballot order for their respective race.

If you read this in the order presented you’ll see smaller parties/races first.

At this point I’m endorsing in only three races, all on the Democratic Ballot:

• Megan Betts for Committeewoman 5th Ward
• Rasheen Aldridge for Committeeman 5th Ward
• Bruce Franks for State Rep. District 78

All three are challenging Rodney or Penny Hubbard. I know all three personally and have donated a small amount to each campaign. We recently hosted a meet & greet for them.

Below are challenged races in the August 2nd partisan primary:

GREEN PARTY

FOR TREASURER

• JEROME BAUER
• DON DE VIVO

LIBERTARIAN PARTY

FOR U.S. SENATOR

REPUBLICAN PARTY

FOR U.S. REP. DISTRICT 1

• STEVEN G. BAILEY
• PAUL BERRY III

FOR ATTORNEY GENERAL

• JOSH HAWLEY
• KURT SCHAEFER

FOR SECRETARY OF STATE

• WILL KRAUS
• JOHN (JAY) ASHCROFT
• ROI CHINN

FOR LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR:

• ARNIE C. – AC DIENOFF
• BEV RANDLES
• MIKE PARSON

FOR GOVERNOR

• CATHERINE HANAWAY
• ERIC GREITENS
• JOHN BRUNNER
• PETER D. KINDER

DEMOCRATIC PARTY

FOR COMMITTEEWOMAN WARD 27

• PAMELA BOYD
• RACHEL JOHNS

FOR COMMITTEEMAN WARD 27

• NATHAN BOYD
• CHRIS CARTER
• JIMMIE MATTHEWS

FOR COMMITTEEWOMAN WARD 26

• TISHAURA O, JONES
• KARLA MAY

FOR COMMITTEEMAN WARD 26

• JOSEPH (JOE) PALM
• DONALD L. GAGE II

FOR COMMITTEEWOMAN WARD 22

• NORMA J. WALKER
• ANNIE MILDRED COOPER

FOR COMMITTEEMAN WARD 21

• ABDUL-KABA ABDULLAH
• JAMES A. KEYS

FOR COMMITTEEWOMAN WARD 20

• KEMATA K. MCCLINE
• WENDY CAMPBELL

FOR COMMITTEEMAN WARD 20

• GLENN BURLEIGH
• DALE SWEET

FOR COMMITTEEMAN WARD 19

• CLINT HARRIS
• RICHARD R. WILSON

FOR COMMITTEEWOMAN WARD 14

• MADALINE BUTHOD
• LAURA OWENS

FOR COMMITTEEMAN WARD 11

• ADAM KUSTRA
• JACOB W. HUMMEL

FOR COMMITTEEWOMAN WARD 10

FOR COMMITTEEMAN WARD 10

• ROB STELZER
• MAX ROBERT CASSILLY

FOR COMMITTEEWOMAN WARD 9

• PAT ORTMANN
• SARA JOHNSON

FOR COMMITTEEWOMAN WARD 8

• ANNIE RICE
• NORAH J. RYAN

FOR COMMITTEEMAN WARD 8

• TONY ZEBROWSKI
• PAUL F. FEHLER

FOR COMMITTEEMAN WARD 7

• MARTY (JOE) MURRAY, JR
• BRIAN ANTHONY WAHBY

FOR COMMITTEEWOMAN WARD 6

• MARY ENTRUP
• ALISON DREITH

FOR COMMITTEEMAN WARD 6

• MATTHEW CARROLL-SCHMIDT
• MICHAEK BUTLER

FOR COMMITTEEWOMAN WARD 5

• PENNY V. HUBBARD
• MEGAN BETTS (endorsed)

FOR COMMITTEEMAN WARD 5

• RODNEY HUBBARD
• RASHEEN ALDRIDGE (endorsed)

FOR COMMITTEEMAN WARD 4

FOR COMMITTEEWOMAN WARD 3

• LUCINDA FRAZIER
• MARGUERITE DILLWORTH
• SHEILA RENDON

FOR COMMITTEEMAN WARD 3

• ANTHONY BELL
• BRANDON BOSLEY

FOR COMMITTEEWOMAN WARD 2

• JOYCE M. HALL
• LISA MIDDLEBROOK

FOR COMMITTEEMAN WARD 2

• LARRY MIDDLEBROOK
• DAVID [DA] MOSLEY

FOR COMMITTEEWOMAN WARD 1

• MANDA DAVIS
• RAQUEL GANT
• YOLANDA [GLASS] BROWN

FOR COMMITTEEMAN WARD 1

• AZIM AZIZ
• STERLING SAMUEL MILLER

FOR SHERIFF

• JOSEPH [JOE] VACCARO
• VERNON BETTS
• JOHNNIE CHESTER, SR.
• CHARLEY [BIG WILL] WILLIAMS
• JIMMIE MATTHEWS

FOR CIRCUIT ATTORNEY

• KIMBERLY M. GARDNER
• PATRICK HAMMACHER
• STEVE HARMON
• MARY PAT CARL

STATE REP. DISTRICT 81

• ALFRED J. (FRED) WESSELS
• STEVE BUTZ
• ADAM KUNSTRA

STATE REP. DISTRICT 80

• BEN MURRAY
• PETER MERIDETH

FOR STATE REP. DISTRICT 78

• BRUCE FRANKS (endorsed)
• PENNY V, HUBBARD

FOR STATE REP. DISTRICT 77

• JESSE TODD
• STEVE ROBERTS
• JOHN COLLINS-MUHAMMAD
• BRIAN ELSESSER

FOR STATE REP. DISTRICT 66

• TOMMIE PIERSON, JR.
• KHALIL ABDUL MUMIN
• MARLENE TERRY

FOR STATE SENATOR DISTRICT 5

• JAMILAH NASHEED
• DYLAN HASSINGER

FOR U.S. REP. DISTRICT 1

• (WILLIAM) BILL HASS
• LACY CLAY
• MARIA N. CHAPPELLE-NADAL

FOR ATTORNEY GENERAL:

• JAKE ZIMMERMAN
• TERESA HENSLEY

FOR STATE TREASURER

• PAT CONTRERAS
• JUDY BAKER

FOR SECRETARY OF STATE

• BILL CLINTON YOUNG
• ROBIN SMITH
• MD RABBI ALAM

FOR LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR

• WINSTON APPLE
• RUSS CARNAHAN
• TOMMIE PIERSON, SR.

FOR GOVERNOR

• LEONARD JOSEPH STEINMAN II
• CHRIS KOSTER
• ERIC MORRISON
• CHARLES B. WHEELER

FOR U.S. SENATOR

• CHIEF WANA DUBIE
• CORI BUSH
• JASON KANDER
• ROBERT MACK

Whether you vote at the polls or via absentee ballot, please research the races/candidates in your ward/district.

Not registered yet? You’ve got until July 6th.

— Steve Patterson

March 2015 Municipal Primary

The March primary is when each party — Green, Republican, Democrat — selects their nominee to face each other, and any Independents, in the April general election. Filling to appear on a primary ballot closed last Friday, those seeking to run as an Independent in the April general have until February 16th to submit signatures.

President of the Board of Aldermen

Incumbent Lewis Reed’s only opposition in the Democratic primary is Jimmie Matthews, a regular candidate for city-wide offices. Republican Eric Shelquist will win his primary because he’s the only GOP candidate, he’ll face Green Jeffrey Schaffer — also assured a primary victory —  and the winner of the Democratic primary (cough *Reed* cough) in April.

Alderman Ward 2

Incumbent Democrat Dionne Flowers faces three challengers in the primary: Joyce M. Hall, Jasmine Turnage, & Winfield Scott. Green Elston K. McCowan will win his primary in March due to no other Green being in the race.

Alderman Ward 4

Sam Moore (the incumbent, not the famous Soul/R&B singer) faces Arneatrice Meyers in the Democratic primary.

Alderman Ward 6

Incumbent Democratic Christine Ingrassia, Republican Dan Elder, and Green Jonathan McFarland will each win by default in their respective primaries.

Alderman Ward 7

With the resignation of Phyllis Young last month, this seat is open for the first time since my senior year of high school — 1985. The Democratic primary has three candidates: John (Jack) Coatar, Chelsea Merta, and Samuel J. Cummings III

Alderman Ward 8

Incumbent Stephen Conway faces Kevin B. McKinney in the Democratic Primary.  Republican Robert J. Shelli will win his primary.

Alderman Ward 10

Joseph Vollmer, the incumbent, will win his Democratic primary as the sole candidate, same for Republican Daniel P. Kalaf.

Alderman Ward 12

Incumbent Larry Arnowitz is challenged by Rafael Hernandez in the Democratic primary.

Alderman Ward 14

Incumbent Carol Howard will win the Democratic nomination in the March primary.

Alderman Ward 15

Megan Ellyia Green, just recently elected in a special election, will face Beth Braznell in the Democratic primary. Joshua D. Simpson will win the GOP nomination by default. I wouldn’t be surprised to see former 15th Ward Ald Jennifer Florida, who lost her bid for a full term as Recorder of Deeds in November, run as an Independent in the April general election.

Alderman Ward 16

Donna M. C. Baringer, the incumbent, will win the Democratic primary by default.

Alderman Ward 18

Terry Kennedy, the incumbent, will face Charles Grumbach in the Democratic primary.

Alderman Ward 20

A 3-way race for the Democratic nomination between incumbent Craig Schmid, Cara Spencer, and David A. Gaither. Green Vickie A. Ingram will win her party’s nomination by default.

Alderman Ward 22

Incumbent Jeffrey L. Boyd faces two challengers in the Democratic primary: Deceal Burgess & Angela D. Newson. Renee Keeble will be the Green nominee in the April general.

Alderman Ward 24

I anticipate the 24th Ward being the most interesting race in this primary season with the current one-term alderman being challenged by the previous one-term alderman and a former alderman that was recalled by the voters. Scott Ogilvie was elected as an Independent 4 years ago, defeating Tom Bauer in the general. Bauer had defeated William Waterhouse in the Democratic primary. Waterhouse was elected after voters recalled Bauer. After being in office as an Independent Ogilvie is running in the Democratic primary this year, who’ll win the primary is anyone’s guess.  Republican Peter Schumaker will be the GOP nominee in the general. Hopefully a 24th Ward resident will collect signatures to run in the general as an Independent — they might just get elected!

Alderman Ward 26

The Democratic primary includes incumbent Frank Williamson & challenger Rodney V. Norman. Fred Baines is the only Green candidate so he’ll win the nomination.

Alderman Ward 28

Lyda Krewson, the incumbent, will face William C. (Bill) Haas in the Democratic primary, Green Jerome H. Bauer will represent his party in the general.

Closing Thoughts

The trick to winning a local primary is to run as a Republican or Green. As I’ve said before, having partisan municipal elections increases voter apathy & costs us more money. St. Louis needs to switch to non-partisam elections!

— Steve Patterson

Lower Manhattan Before the World Trade Center

Yes, this is still a St. Louis-focused blog. Just go with me to New York for a bit, we will return to St. Louis I promise.

I’m researching a paper I have to write for one of my classes at Saint Louis University, “Planning the Metropolis.” The subject? The former World Trade Center in New York. The main focus of the paper is on rebuilding the site after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. As part of the research I’ve been reading City in the Sky: The Rise and Fall of the World Trade Center by New York Times reporters James Glanz and Eric Lipton.

What a colorful story of powerful and unaccountable agencies, backroom politics, the small businessman, eminent domain and how deals get done. What started off as a much smaller project on lower Manhattan’s east side (yes, east side) as a way to boost downtown interest as businesses fled to mid-town ballooned into a massive and mostly unnecessary building project.

I’m not even going to attempt to give you the full story and sadly I’ve not found a good online source. I’ll give you a quick run down and suggest you get this book — it is available from the library (except I have the Buder branch copy at this time). As you read this very long history remember the grand opening dedication took place in 1973:

• 1939: The New York World’s Fair includes an exhibit “dedicated ‘world peace through trade’ and called World Trade Center.” WWII put any immediate plans aside but a committee organizer was Winthrop W. Aldrich, head of the Chase Bank and whose sister was married to John D. Rockefeller, Jr.
• July 28 1945: A B-25 Army bomber plane accidently crashes into the north side of the Empire State Building on the 79th & 80th floors, killing a number of people. Flames erupted from the fuel.
• 1946: NY Governor Thomas Dewey names Aldrich to be a member of a “new state agency named the World Trade Corporation.” The mission was to build a World Trade Center downtown. The plan was a 10-block area with 21 buildings “loosley modeled on the seven-hundred-year-old Leipzig Fair in Genmany.” Well, except for having underground parking. Estimated cost: $150 million. Critics said it would not work and “The planners themselves determined that an astonishing 80 percent of the country’s six thousand largest companies would have to become tenants to give the trade center a chance at financial survival.” The concept was dead just four months after naming the board.
• 1946: 32 year-old David Rockefeller joins the family bank, Chase.
• 1951-54: David Rockefeller takes up the family tradition of shaping New York, by helping raze a large section of an upper west side neighborhood called Morningside Heights, to be rebuilt as a housing project consisting of six high-rise buildings called Morningside Gardens. This would replace 71 apartment buildings, 4 rooming houses and 68 retail stores. The new high-rises would be reserved for the middle-class only. Rockefeller, of course, teamed with the legendary Robert Moses.
• 1955: David Rockefeller seeks real estate for new HQ building for family’s Chase Bank, still headed by his uncle Aldrich. Upon securing real estate is convinced by others more investment is needed in downtown area to keep others in financial district from heading to midtown (as many had done). Rockefeller formed the Downtown Lower-Manhattan Association in late 1955.
• October 1958: Rockefeller’s Downtown association releases report suggesting razing entire blocks of lower Manhattan and supports Moses’ Lower Manhattan Expressway. Combined estimated “investment:” One billion dollars.
• May 25, 1959: First noted record by Rockefeller’s Downtown association of what they then called the “World Trade and Finance Center.” At this point they were focusing on the “downtown” of Lower-Manhattan which is on the east side of the tip of the island.
• June 1959: Hired consulting firm McKinsey & Co determined the World Trade Center may not be so wise, from the book authors, the firm indicated the WTC “could be a serious financial bust. Almost nothing about the concept —its mission or its target client base — was assured.” The authors also noted the report suggested that if it were going to be done, it should be in midtown where everyone was moving to anyway. A key note in the report that if the WTC project were to succeed it would need to be very unique to attract tenants.
• August 11, 1959: The hired consultants, contacted by Rockefeller’s staff prior to the meeting, indicated to the Downtown association executive committee they would back out of the $30,000 consulting contract. It was that or give a glowing report they knew to be false.
• 1959: Architectural firm Skidmore, Owings & Merrill (aka SOM), designers of Rockefeller’s new Chase Bank building, sketched out an idea for the WTC.
• 1959: Rockefeller holds private talks with the Port of New York Authority (as it was known at the time). This agency was created by the states of New York and New Jersey, and had huge revenues from tolls on bridges & tunnels. Rockefeller viewed the Port Authority as the only group with the governmental power and financial resources to pull off the project.
• 1959: David Rockefeller’s older brother, Nelson, becomes Governor of New York. … Continue Reading