MO Secretary of State Says St. Louis Has Nearly 7,000 Fewer People Than St. Louis Claims
Per the Post-Dispatch Political Fix I read that Secretary of State Robin Carnahan unveiled the new Official Manual today, commonly called the “Blue Book” apparently regardless of the color of the cover. So I am looking through the online version because I didn’t get one of the forty thousand printed versions.
The online version is broken down into many small PDF files and I was browsing the municipal one. Therein is a handy list of all the municipalities and how they are classified by the state, such as a Village, a 4th level , a 3rd level or in the case of St. Louis, a Home Rule city (bottom of P887). Hmmm, population estimates. The blue book lists St. Louis’ 2006 estimated population at 347,181 — considerably less than the 353,837 as estimated by the city and accepted by the U.S. Census in April of this year (see prior post). I’ll save you the math, that is 6,656 less people. Ouch, that is almost 2%!
Obviously the book is prepared at a given time and any changes afterwards really cannot be altered. Still, St. Louis announced the revised population figures only two weeks after the April election. Maybe they already had the municipal section done and were simply saving the newly elected reps for last? Still, St. Louis has contested population figures for several years now so they really should have known. Or does Missouri have their own census department that comes up with their own estimates?
Steve–
The Census Bureau has never updated their website after a challenge to the census estimates. At least not for the past three years since I’ve been checking. Go to census.gov, type in St. Louis, and look at the population estimate for 2006: 347,181 (that’s copied and pasted).
This is not some unique number.
“The Census Bureau has never updated their website”
Try checking here:
http://www.census.gov/popest/archives/2000s/vintage_2006/06s_challenges.html
Mayors frequently fight with the Census Bureau over population estimates. There is no way to know our real numbers until the 2010 Census. Until then we can’t believe Slay or anyone when they say our City has had population increases. Of course they would want to say this as they want credit for the historical increase.
Public Eye–
I realize that they update the Census contests, but what good is it if your everyday researcher uses the Census’s Quick Facts or whatever they call them that are available from the main page?
They have never updated these after each contest.
That 2006 number reflects the original contested number, and finding the updated number is a chore.
“There is no way to know our real numbers until the 2010 Census”
Or even after. Census counts are, of course, all estimates at the last couple of percentage points. Incompleteness is an important civic concern because both apportionment of Congressional representation and distribution of federal funds are based on the Census count.
The City’s challenges of the US Census population estimates are based on discussions between the bureau’s demographers and the City’s about the estimates’ methodology.
We should also remember what those numbers are based on.
In 2000 the Census Bureau reports, “Census 2000 race data are not directly comparable with data from 1990 and previous censuses” because “Some tables will show data for 7 race categories: the 6 (mutually-exclusive) major race-alone categories (White, African-American, American Indian and Alaska Native, Asian, Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander, and some other race) and a ‘two or more races’ category. The sum of these 7 categories will add to 100 percent of the population.”
Listed below are the totals (2003 estimates) some of us public health folks have been using for the City:
Total Population: 340044
Total White: 153420
Total Male White: 75887
Total Female White: 77532
Total Black: 173499
Total Male Black: 78748
Total Female Black: 94756
Total Native American:950
Total Male Native American:459
Total Female Native American:485
Total Asian:7088
Total Male Asian:3626
Total Female Asian:3461
Total Pacific Islanders:106
Total Male Pacific Islanders:53
Total Female Pacific Islanders:52
Total 2 or more races: 4984
Total Male 2 or more races:2379
Total Female 2 or more races: 2607
Total Hispanic (non-white) :8530
Total Male Hispanic (non-white):4557
Total Female Hispanic (non-white): 3975
yeah yeah I’m a dork. We all already knew that…;)