Fuels to Keep the Cars Running Still Many Years Off
One of the most recent changes in fueling vehicles is the switch to “Ultra-Low Sulfur” diesel fuel with no more than 15 ppm (parts per million). As the only road worthy diesel now available, this permits auto manufacturers to use the high tech emissions systems used on diesel cars in Europe and Asia. That is, our old 500+ ppm diesel fuel would have damaged the sensitive emissions equipment.
This new diesel fuel seems to be pricier than the old but I have no evidence of such. Lately gasoline prices have shown a steady increase in price making the diesel priced between the mid and high grades of gas.
Of course many people are assuming we’ll simply all shift to one or more of a number of “alternative” fuels being marketed currently or in development. These include ethanol, bio-diesel and hydrogen. Via Green Car Congress is a look at a new report from the US Government Accounting Office on alternate fuels. GCC reports:
The technologies examined currently supply the equivalent of only about 1% of US annual consumption of petroleum products;
DOE estimates that even under optimistic scenarios, these technologies could displace only the equivalent of about 4% of projected annual consumption by around 2015.
DOE projects that these technologies could displace up to the equivalent of 34% of projected US annual consumption of petroleum products in the 2025 through 2030 time frame, assuming the challenges the technologies face are overcome.
Basically if the effects of peak oil come in the next 10-20 years we will have some serious issues to deal with. The report suggests, depending upon timing, we could face a world-wide recession.
One of the things we do know is that we simply cannot grow ourselves out of this fuel crisis. If we grew enough corn to supply all of our petroleum needs we’d not have any corn left to eat or any crop land to grow much else.
The answer is very clear, at the same time we develop new fuels we need to be reducing our dependence on the car through mass transit, cycling, walking or simply reduced trips/distance in the car. As fuel prices increase, it will get easier and easier to justify capital improvements for mass transit. As regular readers know, I’m more of an advocate for lower-cost streetcar/tram systems serving compact local areas than long distances of light rail serving the broader region. The costs to get transit out to the low-density suburbs can be just as bad as running a highway out there. Building compact in the core will support the transit I seek as well as supporting those that choose to bike or walk.
Who knows, maybe in 2030 I’ll get that new hydrogen car but in the meantime we need more realistic solutions to our transportation needs.